Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y |
Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017 | |
Nordhaus, William | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 148期号:4页码:623-640 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (Science 258:1315-1319, 1992a), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2018). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study finds that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly, sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond). Additionally, the approach developed here can serve as a useful template for IAMs to describe their salient characteristics and revisions for the broader community of analysts. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434459200013 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30229 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nordhaus, William. Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,148(4):623-640. |
APA | Nordhaus, William.(2018).Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017.CLIMATIC CHANGE,148(4),623-640. |
MLA | Nordhaus, William."Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017".CLIMATIC CHANGE 148.4(2018):623-640. |
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