Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1882-z |
The impact of changing climate on perennial crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka | |
Gunathilaka, R. P. Dayani1,2; Smart, James C. R.1; Fleming, Christopher M.3 | |
2017-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 140 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Sri Lanka |
英文摘要 | The plantation crop sector, particularly tea, is a key contributor to the Sri Lankan economy in terms of foreign exchange earnings, employment, and food supply. However, changes in temperature, rainfall, and the occurrence of extreme weather events have adversely affected the sector. Many studies in the literature have focused on climate change impacts on major annual crops; however, to date, comprehensive assessments of the economic impacts of weather variations on perennial crops are rare. In this paper, we use monthly panel data from 40 different tea estates in Sri Lanka over a 15-year period to analyse weather effects on production from the tea plantation sector. Specifically, we use a two-stage panel data approach to explore how tea production in Sri Lanka is affected by both short-term weather variations and long-term climate change. Overall, our findings show that a hotter and wetter climate will have a detrimental effect on Sri Lankan tea production. In high, medium, and low emissions futures, our predictions show a negative proportional impact from increased rainfall and increased average temperature. Under a high emissions scenario, by mid-century, a decline of 12% in annual tea production is predicted. Other climate-susceptible perennial crops such as rubber, coconut, and oil palm play similarly major roles in the economies of other developing countries, suggesting that our approach could usefully be replicated elsewhere. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000393744800018 |
WOS关键词 | CAMELLIA-SINENSIS ; ECONOMIC-IMPACTS ; AGRICULTURE ; YIELDS ; MONSOON ; WEATHER ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30245 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Griffith Univ, Sch Environm, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia; 2.Uva Wellassa Univ, Dept Export Agr, Badulla 90000, Sri Lanka; 3.Griffith Univ, Sch Business, South Bank, Qld 4101, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gunathilaka, R. P. Dayani,Smart, James C. R.,Fleming, Christopher M.. The impact of changing climate on perennial crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,140. |
APA | Gunathilaka, R. P. Dayani,Smart, James C. R.,&Fleming, Christopher M..(2017).The impact of changing climate on perennial crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka.CLIMATIC CHANGE,140. |
MLA | Gunathilaka, R. P. Dayani,et al."The impact of changing climate on perennial crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka".CLIMATIC CHANGE 140(2017). |
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