资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

To study the response of lakes to climate change, variations in volume of closed lakes larger than 50 km(2) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were analyzed by integrating Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Digital Elevation Model (SRTM DEM) and LANDSAT images. Total lake volume (LV) increased (net) by 102.64 km(3) during 1976-2013 with an average annual rate of 2.77 km(3) year(-1); the rate increased dramatically to 7.67 km(3) year(-1) during 2000-2013. Four main patterns of LV change were discovered using k-means clustering analysis: (1) a slight increase in LV during 1976-2000 followed by a rapid increase in the southeastern part of the endorheic region, (2) an initial decrease in LV followed by an increase during 1990-2013 in the central and western parts of the endorheic region, (3) an initial decrease in LV followed by an increase during 2000-2013 in the northeastern part of the endorheic region, and (4) an overall decrease during the whole study period for the southern outflow region. Precipitation was the dominant factor affecting LV change. In particular, abnormally large amounts of precipitation during 2000-2013 resulted in a dramatic increase in LV. Temperature changes were positively correlated to LV change before 2000 and negatively after 2000. Glaciers have different influence on LV change based on the comparison between lakes with and without glacial melt input. The distinct regional patterns of change in LV indicate that the sensitivity of lakes to a changing climate varies depending upon the time period and spatial location. These findings have important implications for both the interpretation of past lake level records and prediction of future lake responses to climate change.