GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-018-2246-7
Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios
Bozkurt, Deniz1; Rojas, Maisa2; Pablo Boisier, Juan1; Valdivieso, Jonas3
2018-10-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2018
卷号150页码:131-147
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Chile
英文摘要

This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (approximate to 30-40 degrees S) under a low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). A gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset based on observations is used to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest. Historical and future simulations from 19 climate models participating in CMIP5 have been adjusted with the observational dataset and then used to make hydrological projections. By the end of the century, there is a large difference between the scenarios, with projected warming of approximate to + 1.2 degrees C (RCP2.6), approximate to +3.5 degrees C (RCP8.5) and drying of approximate to - 3% (RCP2.6), approximate to - 30% (RCP8.5). Following the strong drying and warming projected in this region under the RCP8.5 scenario, the VIC model simulates decreases in annual runoff of about 40% by the end of the century. Such strong regional effect of climate change may have large implications for the water resources of this region. Even under the low emission scenario, the Andes snowpack is projected to decrease by 35-45% by mid-century. In more snowmelt-dominated areas, the projected hydrological changes under RCP8.5 go together with more loss in the snowpack (75-85%) and a temporal shift in the center timing of runoff to earlier dates (up to 5 weeks by the end of the century). The severity and frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events are also projected to increase in the future. The occurrence of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010-2015), increases from one to up to five events per 100 years under RCP8.5. Concurrently, probability density function of 3-day peak runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of 3-day peak runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as higher recurrence intervals are considered by mid-century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and by the end of the century under RCP8.5.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000448034000001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER-RESOURCES ; 20-1ST CENTURY ; GLOBAL CLIMATE ; REGION ; HYDROLOGY ; RCM
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30278
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Chile, Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Santiago, Chile;
2.Univ Chile, Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Dept Geophys, Santiago, Chile;
3.Univ Chile, Dept Civil Engn, Santiago, Chile
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GB/T 7714
Bozkurt, Deniz,Rojas, Maisa,Pablo Boisier, Juan,et al. Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,150:131-147.
APA Bozkurt, Deniz,Rojas, Maisa,Pablo Boisier, Juan,&Valdivieso, Jonas.(2018).Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios.CLIMATIC CHANGE,150,131-147.
MLA Bozkurt, Deniz,et al."Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios".CLIMATIC CHANGE 150(2018):131-147.
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