Adapting to the challenges of warming

doi:10.1126/science.abe4479

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abe4479
	Adapting to the challenges of warming
	Steven C. Sherwood
	2020-11-13
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2020
英文摘要	Heat extremes on Earth have reached a disturbing new level in recent years. The July 2020 temperatures soared across Siberia and reached a record-breaking 38°C inside the Arctic Circle, continuing a line of record heat events globally. “Event attribution” calculations, which are an endeavor to apportion blame for extreme events through quantitative modeling, suggest that some events would have been nearly impossible without human-induced global warming. This includes the recent Siberian summer and the 2018 heat wave in Japan, which killed more than a thousand people ([ 1 ][1], [ 2 ][2]). Rising heat is creating new challenges for humanity that will require new adaptation and protection measures. Smart implementation requires careful calculation of how further global temperature rises will translate into short-term regional heat events and how these will translate into impacts on human health and activities, food supply, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These enhanced heat extremes are the result of slightly more than 1°C of global-mean anthropogenic warming since the mid-19th century. The world has set a goal under the Paris Agreement to keep global-mean anthropogenic warming below 2°C in the future, or 1.5°C if possible. Current national commitments, however, could well permit increases of up to 4°C or so by the end of this century, with further increases thereafter ([ 3 ][3]). Even the ambitious Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2013 leaves only a 50% chance of remaining below 2.4°C by 2090, given the latest estimates of climate sensitivity ([ 4 ][4]). Limiting carbon dioxide to meet the 2°C target will therefore require some combination of substantially stricter emissions-reduction commitments and policies or carbon dioxide removal efforts, each presenting daunting sociopolitical, economic, and technological challenges. A common saying is that people do not feel the average temperature. However, climate model projections do indicate that in most regions, peak temperatures (see the figure) roughly track the annual mean in the same location ([ 5 ][5]). In some regions such as Western Europe, extremes are predicted to increase faster than the mean owing to greater variability. Moreover, the mean increases vary around the globe; one reason is that the upwelling of cold water from the deep oceans will cause Southern Hemisphere temperatures to lag behind those in the Northern Hemisphere for decades or centuries. Also, land regions generally warm more than oceans, a result of the difference in background humidity ([ 6 ][6]). ![Figure][7] Future rises in peak temperature The increase in the maximum 20-year return value of maximum daytime temperature late this century (2081–2100) relative to 1986–2005, based on the average of many climate models, is shown. Projections based on a strong mitigation scenario \[Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5\] (top) and a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) (bottom) are shown. GRAPHIC: ADAPTED FROM COLLINS ET AL. ([ 3 ][3]) Although early research focused on maximum temperatures, additional factors have come to the fore. Humidity is crucial to heat stress, for example, because it inhibits evaporative cooling. Humidity is increasing globally along with temperature. Regional variations in these variables tend to compensate, so that areas like Western Europe and South America that become drier also warm more ([ 7 ][8]). Thus, heat stress will increase relatively more uniformly and predictably, whereas moisture stresses will change more variably, as some regions warm and dry substantially. Animals, including humans, and plants can be subject to either stress independently. Anthropogenic warming has roughly tripled the size of the human population that experiences dangerous humid heat annually ([ 8 ][9]), and this heat is already approaching the limits of human tolerance in a few locations ([ 9 ][10]). Humidity increases not only thermal stress outdoors but also the overall energy requirements of cooling systems, which already account for a large fraction of total power consumption in humid climates where air conditioning has become widespread ([ 10 ][11]). Another factor to consider is the duration of heat events. More frequent or longer heat events tend to have greater impacts on human health ([ 11 ][12]), and nighttime temperatures are more strongly correlated to heat-related mortality than daytime ones. These observations show that adequate physiological recovery from heat exposure is important. Wind systems, such as the mid-latitude jet streams and associated weather systems, are expected to slow in a warmer climate, potentially causing longer lasting periods of extreme weather. However, multiple factors are at work such that the net change remains unclear ([ 12 ][13]). Because of the “urban heat island” effect, temperatures are higher in urban areas than in surrounding natural areas ([ 13 ][14]). The relative lack of vegetation means that incoming solar energy goes into heating surfaces rather than canopies aloft, and less goes into evaporating water vapor. Human-made surfaces and urban canyons also retain heat better into the night. In addition, the energy used in cities generates heat, which is negligible on a global scale but often important in urban areas. Urban heat islands are not typically included in climate calculations and are likely to worsen anywhere that urbanizes further, adding to the warming delivered by the climate system. Although predicting the above factors is challenging enough, quantifying their impacts is even harder. Quantitative models of heat-affected natural and human systems, if used at all, are less advanced relative to the complexity involved than are weather and climate models. Meanwhile, climate change is creating conditions that lie outside the range of past experiences, limiting the reliability of empirical studies. Current impact models diverge substantially in the predicted impacts of climate changes ([ 14 ][15]) and almost surely suffer from systematic biases ([ 15 ][16]). Diverse impacts generally depend on the different aspects of heat events, devaluing any one-size-fits-all heat measure. We need to more rigorously quantify the links between meteorological forecasts and practical consequences. Past studies do point to a couple of robust conclusions. One is that impacts will increase nonlinearly with mean warming, as extreme thresholds are crossed with rapidly increasing frequency ([ 8 ][9]). This highlights the need for strong emissions mitigation to keep warming to a level that we can cope with. The other is that although no one will be spared, the world's poor will be hit particularly hard ([ 11 ][12]). This highlights the need for low-cost adaptations and technologies as we seek suitable countermeasures to rising heat. 1. [↵][17]World Weather Attribution Project, Siberian heatwave of 2020 almost impossible without climate change (2020); [www.worldweatherattribution.org/siberian-heatwave-of-2020-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/][18]. 2. [↵][19]1. Y. Imada, 2. M. Watanabe, 3. H. Kawase, 4. H. Shiogama, 5. M. Arai , Sci. Online Lett. Atmos. 15A, 8 (2019). [OpenUrl][20] 3. [↵][21]1. T. F. Stocker et al. 1. M. Collins et al ., in “Climate change 2013: The physical science basis,” T. F. Stocker et al., Eds. 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领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/304063
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Steven C. Sherwood. Adapting to the challenges of warming[J]. Science,2020.
APA	Steven C. Sherwood.(2020).Adapting to the challenges of warming.Science.
MLA	Steven C. Sherwood."Adapting to the challenges of warming".Science (2020).