资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The sensitivity of the Arctic precipitation phases (solid and liquid) to the forcings from greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols over 2016‐2080 was investigated by using the Community Earth System Model version 1. Results show that the warming caused by the two forcings results in an increasing trend in total precipitation and a solid‐to‐liquid precipitation transition in the Arctic. Under RCP8.5 scenario, the increased rate of Arctic mean precipitation with global warming forced by aerosol reduction (7.7%/°C) is twice greater than that by increased GHG emission (3.5%/°C). The sensitivity of rainfall to precipitation ratio (RPR) to various forcings is much higher than that of total precipitation in the Arctic. The increased rate of RPR due to global aerosol forcing (8.4%/°C) is approximately three times that due to GHG forcing (2.9%/°C) in the Arctic, the differences even larger over Greenland and the eastern Arctic Ocean, resulting in more rainfall in these areas.