Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186 |
Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty | |
Enayat A. Moallemi, Jan Kwakkel, Fjalar J. de Haan, Brett A. Bryan | |
2020-11-17 | |
发表期刊 | Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in various forms challenges inferences from modeling results. Model-based support for decision-making has increasingly adopted an emerging exploratory approach. This approach addresses uncertainty explicitly through systematically exploring the implications of modeling assumptions, aiming to enhance the robustness of inferences from models. Despite a variety of applications, the extent and the way(s) that exploratory modeling can deal with the challenges that arise from the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making with stakeholders has not yet been systematically framed. We address this gap in two ways. First, we present a taxonomy of the ways that exploratory modeling can be used to inform robust inferences in coupled human-natural systems by mapping the technical capabilities of this approach in relation to the diversity of past applications. This subsequently guides an investigation of the practical benefits and challenges of these capabilities in handling uncertainty and complexity. Second, we discuss different ways for integrating genuine stakeholder engagement into exploratory modeling through transdisciplinary research. Finally we outline some priorities for future expansion of this research area. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/304263 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Enayat A. Moallemi, Jan Kwakkel, Fjalar J. de Haan, Brett A. Bryan. Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty[J]. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions,2020. |
APA | Enayat A. Moallemi, Jan Kwakkel, Fjalar J. de Haan, Brett A. Bryan.(2020).Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty.Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions. |
MLA | Enayat A. Moallemi, Jan Kwakkel, Fjalar J. de Haan, Brett A. Bryan."Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty".Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions (2020). |
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