Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15435 |
Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence | |
Lisa I. Couper; Andrew J. MacDonald; Erin A. Mordecai | |
2020-11-22 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Lyme disease is the most common vector‐borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the United States (US). The life cycles of the tick vectors and spirochete pathogen are highly sensitive to climate, but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Here we incorporated 18 years of annual, county‐level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical model to investigate prior effects of climate variation on disease incidence while controlling for other putative drivers. We then used these climate–disease relationships to project Lyme disease cases using CMIP5 global climate models and two potential climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that interannual variation in Lyme disease incidence is associated with climate variation in all US regions encompassing the range of the primary vector species. In all regions, the climate predictors explained less of the variation in Lyme disease incidence than unobserved county‐level heterogeneity, but the strongest climate–disease association detected was between warming annual temperatures and increasing incidence in the Northeast. Lyme disease projections indicate that cases in the Northeast will increase significantly by 2050 (23,619 ± 21,607 additional cases), but only under RCP8.5, and with large uncertainty around this projected increase. Significant case changes are not projected for any other region under either climate scenario. The results demonstrate a regionally variable and nuanced relationship between climate change and Lyme disease, indicating possible nonlinear responses of vector ticks and transmission dynamics to projected climate change. Moreover, our results highlight the need for improved preparedness and public health interventions in endemic regions to minimize the impact of further climate change‐induced increases in Lyme disease burden. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/304822 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lisa I. Couper,Andrew J. MacDonald,Erin A. Mordecai. Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence[J]. Global Change Biology,2020. |
APA | Lisa I. Couper,Andrew J. MacDonald,&Erin A. Mordecai.(2020).Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Lisa I. Couper,et al."Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence".Global Change Biology (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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