Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
	Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
	admin
	2020-12-14
出版年	2020
国家	欧洲
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
英文摘要	In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
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来源平台	European Geosciences Union
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/308423
专题	资源环境科学气候变化
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	admin. Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence,2020.