Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018 |
Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century | |
Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando1,2,6,7; Kinnison, Douglas E.3; Rap, Alexandru4; Maycock, Amanda C.4; Wild, Oliver1,2; Young, Paul J.1,2,5 | |
2018-05-03 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 18期号:9页码:6121-6139 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA; Spain |
英文摘要 | Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 +/- 104m Wm(-2), (2) 163 +/- 109m Wm(-2), and (3) 238 +/- 113m Wm(-2) due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 +/- 130m Wm(-2) relative to year 2000 and 760 +/- 230m Wm(-2) relative to year 1750, with the 95% confidence interval given by +/- 30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry-climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46m Wm(-2)). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for similar to 50% of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000-2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431367200001 |
WOS关键词 | STRATOSPHERE-TROPOSPHERE EXCHANGE ; CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODEL ; WATER-VAPOR TRENDS ; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY ; LIGHTNING NOX ; RESIDUAL CIRCULATION ; TEMPERATURE TRENDS ; NITROGEN-OXIDES ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; FUTURE CLIMATE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30846 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England; 2.Univ Lancaster, Data Sci Inst, Lancaster, England; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Atmospher Chem Observat & Modeling Lab, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 4.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 5.Univ Lancaster, Pentland Ctr Sustainabil Business, Lancaster, England; 6.CSIC, Inst Phys Chem Rocasolano, Dept Atmospher Chem, Madrid, Spain; 7.CSIC, Inst Phys Chem Rocasolano, Climate Grp, Madrid, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando,Kinnison, Douglas E.,Rap, Alexandru,et al. Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2018,18(9):6121-6139. |
APA | Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando,Kinnison, Douglas E.,Rap, Alexandru,Maycock, Amanda C.,Wild, Oliver,&Young, Paul J..(2018).Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,18(9),6121-6139. |
MLA | Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando,et al."Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 18.9(2018):6121-6139. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论