资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This report identifies a range of possibilities. It does so by pointing out domestic and international issues that are the driving forces for social change, and referring to strategies and roadmaps put forward by governments and a range of organisations. This report summarises how these issues bring about social change and affect resource and energy demands. While the future might entail various possibilities, this report describes two distinctive scenarios. These are (1) a lock-in scenario that envisions technological progress in a society in which existing systems and institutions are not changed significantly, and the current situation is maintained, and (2) a transition scenario that envisions technological development and involves a transformation of various social elements.

Based on the discussion of energy systems, potential domestic renewable energy, domestic CO2 storage, reliance on imports of fossil fuels and status of  people’s live, this report concludes that in order to achieve a net-zero world, Japan should be heading in the direction of the transition scenario. To that end, it is necessary to introduce various measures in all policy areas. A strategy geared towards a net-zero world needs to be positioned as being national, as this cannot be achieved by one organisation alone, and all Japanese stakeholders should cooperate with each other. In particular, when replacing or investing in facilities that can be used over the long term, such as buildings, large-scale power stations and facilities in the industrial sector, it is vital that we have a long-term vision so that industries can respond to social changes that may shift drastically in the future.