GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa63fe
The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.1,2; Fischer, E. M.3; Angelil, O.1,2; Gibson, P. B.1,2
2017-04-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2017
卷号12期号:4
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia; Switzerland
英文摘要

Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding preindustrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the 'business as usual' scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.


英文关键词heatwaves internal variability trends observations model projections global regional
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000397804000005
WOS关键词WARMING HOLE ; TEMPERATURE ; WAVES ; HIATUS ; SIMULATIONS ; EXTREMES ; FEEDBACK ; LONGER ; MODES
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:45[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30989
专题气候变化
作者单位1.UNSW Australia, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;
2.UNSW Australia, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;
3.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.,Fischer, E. M.,Angelil, O.,et al. The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(4).
APA Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.,Fischer, E. M.,Angelil, O.,&Gibson, P. B..(2017).The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(4).
MLA Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.,et al."The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.4(2017).
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