Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa63fe |
The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends | |
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.1,2; Fischer, E. M.3; Angelil, O.1,2; Gibson, P. B.1,2 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding preindustrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the 'business as usual' scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed. |
英文关键词 | heatwaves internal variability trends observations model projections global regional |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000397804000005 |
WOS关键词 | WARMING HOLE ; TEMPERATURE ; WAVES ; HIATUS ; SIMULATIONS ; EXTREMES ; FEEDBACK ; LONGER ; MODES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30989 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.UNSW Australia, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 2.UNSW Australia, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 3.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.,Fischer, E. M.,Angelil, O.,et al. The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(4). |
APA | Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.,Fischer, E. M.,Angelil, O.,&Gibson, P. B..(2017).The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(4). |
MLA | Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.,et al."The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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