Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/ele.12834 |
Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated | |
Lee, Aline Magdalena1; Saether, Bernt-Erik1; Markussen, Stine Svalheim1; Engen, Steinar2 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGY LETTERS
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ISSN | 1461-023X |
EISSN | 1461-0248 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 20期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway |
英文摘要 | In nature, individual reproductive success is seldom independent from year to year, due to factors such as reproductive costs and individual heterogeneity. However, population projection models that incorporate temporal autocorrelations in individual reproduction can be difficult to parameterise, particularly when data are sparse. We therefore examine whether such models are necessary to avoid biased estimates of stochastic population growth and extinction risk, by comparing output from a matrix population model that incorporates reproductive autocorrelations to output from a standard age-structured matrix model that does not. We use a range of parameterisations, including a case study using moose data, treating probabilities of switching reproductive class as either fixed or fluctuating. Expected time to extinction from the two models is found to differ by only small amounts (under 10%) for most parameterisations, indicating that explicitly accounting for individual reproductive autocorrelations is in most cases not necessary to avoid bias in extinction estimates. |
英文关键词 | Age structure demographic stochasticity dynamic heterogeneity environmental stochasticity extinction life history matrix model moose population growth reproductive autocorrelation |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413145900004 |
WOS关键词 | LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS ; DEMOGRAPHIC STOCHASTICITY ; ENVIRONMENTAL STOCHASTICITY ; STRUCTURED POPULATIONS ; DYNAMIC HETEROGENEITY ; ANIMAL POPULATIONS ; LARGE HERBIVORES ; FUR SEALS ; AGE ; COSTS |
WOS类目 | Ecology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31269 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Biol, Ctr Biodivers Dynam, Trondheim, Norway; 2.Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Math Sci, Ctr Biodivers Dynam, Trondheim, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lee, Aline Magdalena,Saether, Bernt-Erik,Markussen, Stine Svalheim,et al. Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2017,20(11). |
APA | Lee, Aline Magdalena,Saether, Bernt-Erik,Markussen, Stine Svalheim,&Engen, Steinar.(2017).Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated.ECOLOGY LETTERS,20(11). |
MLA | Lee, Aline Magdalena,et al."Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated".ECOLOGY LETTERS 20.11(2017). |
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