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DOI10.1111/ele.12893
Making ecological models adequate
Getz, Wayne M.1; 39;Odorico, Paolo2; 39;Sullivan, David3
2018-02-01
发表期刊ECOLOGY LETTERS
ISSN1461-023X
EISSN1461-0248
出版年2018
卷号21期号:2页码:153-166
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; England; South Africa
英文摘要

Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems' responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.


英文关键词appropriate complexity modelling coarse graining disease modelling ecosystems restoration models environmental management models extinction risk assessment hierarchical modelling
领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000425823900001
WOS关键词INTEGRAL PROJECTION MODELS ; CARBON DYNAMICS ; COMBINING MODIS ; CLIMATE ; SCALE ; EXTINCTION ; VALIDATION ; SELECTION ; FLUXES ; APPROPRIATE
WOS类目Ecology
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/31375
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;
2.Univ Calif Berkeley, Museum Paleontol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;
3.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Integrat Biol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;
4.Univ Bristol, Bristol Ctr Complex Sci, Dept Engn Math, Bristol, Avon, England;
5.Univ Bristol, Sch Biol Sci, Bristol, Avon, England;
6.Univ Florida, Dept Geog, Gainesville, FL 32601 USA;
7.Univ Florida, Emerging Pathogens Inst, Gainesville, FL 32601 USA;
8.US Geol Survey, Wetland & Aquat Res Ctr, Ft Lauderdale, FL 33314 USA;
9.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Geog, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;
10.Univ KwaZulu, Sch Math Sci, Natal, South Africa;
11.Univ KwaZulu, Sch Life Sci, Natal, South Africa
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GB/T 7714
Getz, Wayne M.,39;Odorico, Paolo,39;Sullivan, David. Making ecological models adequate[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2018,21(2):153-166.
APA Getz, Wayne M.,39;Odorico, Paolo,&39;Sullivan, David.(2018).Making ecological models adequate.ECOLOGY LETTERS,21(2),153-166.
MLA Getz, Wayne M.,et al."Making ecological models adequate".ECOLOGY LETTERS 21.2(2018):153-166.
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