资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

As global investment in renewable energy technologies continue to trend upward, the effects of variable (intermittent) renewable energy technologies on power markets have created serious challenges for regulators and policymakers. The literature on the effects of these technologies on day-ahead markets has been well established; however, further research is required on intra-day and real-time (balancing) markets to understand how these technologies are changing electricity market dynamics. In this respect, this study aims to assess the effects of the variable renewable energy technologies (wind and run-of-river hydro) on Turkish balancing market prices using quantile regression. In addition, ordered logistic regression is used to evaluate how system imbalances are changing as a result of these technologies. Model results show that system marginal price declines as variable renewable energy generation increases. Moreover, there is a higher probability of positive imbalance as the positive difference between real-time and projected variable renewable energy generation increases. Overall, an increase in variable renewable energy generation implies lower prices, but higher positive imbalances for the system. Hence, we recommend that Turkey should revise its current market design to incorporate the geographical and temporal generation characteristics of these technologies.