资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

We studied the contribution of coal-fired power plant (CPP) emissions (SO₂ and NOx) to air pollution levels and annual excess mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Europe, based on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations computed with a regional atmospheric chemistry-transport model. The health burden of European CPP emission-induced PM2.5, estimated with the Global Exposure Mortality Model, amounts to at least 16 800 (CI95 14 800–18 700) excess deaths per year over the European domain. We identified an underestimation of the emissions magnitude and correcting for it doubles CPP-attributed annual excess mortality to 33 900 (CI95 33 000–37 600) per year. Due to the non-linearity of exposure-responses, especially at relatively low concentrations, these estimates represent lower limits of possible health benefits for the EU-28 states. CPP emission phase-out would avoid 18 400 (CI95 16 000–20 500) excess deaths annually assuming background PM2.5 levels of 10 μg m⁻³, 25 500 (CI95 22 600–28 200) per year if pollution levels from other sources are reduced by 50% in parallel, and 105 900 (CI95 89 900–121 700) deaths by drastically reducing anthropogenic pollution from other sources to 2.4 μg m⁻³ that represents the threshold for health impacts. Depending on the emission scenario, large health gains can be achieved from the phase-out of CPP emissions, which calls for coordinated air pollution control strategies at the European level.