Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aad056 |
Climate costs of tropical cyclone losses also depend on rain | |
Bakkensen, Laura A.1; Park, Doo-Sun R.2; Sarkar, Raja Shanti Ranjan1 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; South Korea |
英文摘要 | It is well established that climate change will lead to changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics and affiliated impacts to human communities. While a growing social science literature estimates losses from TCs, almost all have characterized TCs by wind speed alone. However, TC winds are commonly accompanied by intense rainfall, both of which will likely be impacted by climate change. We assess the impact of rain on current and future TC losses and estimate the bias in loss calculations from omitting rainfall. Using a TC Integrated Assessment Model utilizing 60 000 simulated TCs making landfall in South Korea, we find rain to be a significant loss determinant. For both the wind-only and wind + rain cases, socioeconomic change will cause a decrease in fatalities and a large increase in property losses due to a shrinking population and growing wealth. Regarding climate change, the wind-only case considerably underestimates the climate costs of TC losses compared to the wind + rain case, driven by notable increases in future rainfall in contrast with minor wind intensity changes. While the relative impacts of TC wind versus rain under climate change will no doubt be different across countries, our results highlight the importance of accounting for both wind and rainfall in research and policy, especially in mitigation and adaptation planning. |
英文关键词 | tropical cyclone rainfall climate cost climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439133800001 |
WOS关键词 | NATURAL DISASTERS ; DAMAGES ; RISK ; FATALITIES ; INCOME |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32109 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Arizona, Sch Govt & Publ Policy, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 2.Chosun Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Gwangju, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bakkensen, Laura A.,Park, Doo-Sun R.,Sarkar, Raja Shanti Ranjan. Climate costs of tropical cyclone losses also depend on rain[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(7). |
APA | Bakkensen, Laura A.,Park, Doo-Sun R.,&Sarkar, Raja Shanti Ranjan.(2018).Climate costs of tropical cyclone losses also depend on rain.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(7). |
MLA | Bakkensen, Laura A.,et al."Climate costs of tropical cyclone losses also depend on rain".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.7(2018). |
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