Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016JD026251 |
Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China | |
Li, Huixin1,2; Chen, Huopo1,3; Wang, Huijun1,3 | |
2017-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:13 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study aims to provide an assessment of the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcings and other external factors on observed increases in extreme precipitation over China from 1961 to 2005. Extreme precipitation is represented by the annual maximum 1 day precipitation (RX1D) and the annual maximum 5 day consecutive precipitation (RX5D), and these variables are investigated using observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The analyses mainly focus on the probability-based index (PI), which is derived from RX1D and RX5D by fitting generalized extreme value distributions. The results indicate that the simulations that include the ANT forcings provide the best representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation over China. We use the optimal fingerprint method to obtain the univariate and multivariate fingerprints of the responses to external forcings. The results show that only the ANT forcings are detectable at a 90% confidence level, both individually and when natural forcings are considered simultaneously. The impact of the forcing associated with greenhouse gases (GHGs) is also detectable in RX1D, but its effects cannot be separated from those of combinations of forcings that exclude the GHG forcings in the two-signal analyses. Besides, the estimated changes of PI, extreme precipitation, and events with a 20 year return period under nonstationary climate states are potentially attributable to ANT or GHG forcings, and the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature from ANT forcings show agreement with observations. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000407900300012 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE EXTREMES ; PART I ; TRENDS ; TEMPERATURE ; ATTRIBUTION ; DATASET ; EVENTS ; RISK |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32254 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Huixin,Chen, Huopo,Wang, Huijun. Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(13). |
APA | Li, Huixin,Chen, Huopo,&Wang, Huijun.(2017).Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(13). |
MLA | Li, Huixin,et al."Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.13(2017). |
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