Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027445 |
Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013-2014 Summer Season | |
Zhu, Kefeng1,2; Xue, Ming1,2,3,4; Zhou, Bowen1,2; Zhao, Kun1,2; Sun, Zhengqi1,2; Fu, Peiling1,2; Zheng, Yongguang5; Zhang, Xiaoling5; Meng, Qingtao5 | |
2018-01-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:2页码:1037-1064 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Forecasts at a 4km convection-permitting resolution over China during the summer season have been produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model at Nanjing University since 2013. Precipitation forecasts from 2013 to 2014 are evaluated with dense rain gauge observations and compared with operational global model forecasts. Overall, the 4km forecasts show very good agreement with observations over most parts of China, outperforming global forecasts in terms of spatial distribution, intensity, and diurnal variation. Quantitative evaluations with the Gilbert skill score further confirm the better performance of the 4km forecasts over global forecasts for heavy precipitation, especially for the thresholds of 100 and 150mmd(-1). Besides bulk characteristics, the representations of some unique features of summer precipitation in China under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon are further evaluated. These include the northward progression and southward retreat of the main rainband through the summer season, the diurnal variations of precipitation, and the meridional and zonal propagation of precipitation episodes associated with background synoptic flow and the embedded mesoscale convective systems. The 4km forecast is able to faithfully reproduce most of the features while overprediction of afternoon convection near the southern China coast is found to be a main deficiency that requires further investigations. |
英文关键词 | convection-permitting precipitation forecasting precipitation forecast verification spatial distribution of precipitation propagation and diurnal cycle of precipitation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425520200025 |
WOS关键词 | NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION ; SUBTROPICAL EAST-ASIA ; 21 JULY 2012 ; DIURNAL CYCLE ; EXTREME RAINFALL ; MODEL DESCRIPTION ; CLIMATE MODELS ; RAPID REFRESH ; PART II ; MONSOON |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32297 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Mesoscale Severe Weather, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Oklahoma, Ctr Anal & Predict Storms, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 4.Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 5.Chinese Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhu, Kefeng,Xue, Ming,Zhou, Bowen,et al. Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013-2014 Summer Season[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(2):1037-1064. |
APA | Zhu, Kefeng.,Xue, Ming.,Zhou, Bowen.,Zhao, Kun.,Sun, Zhengqi.,...&Meng, Qingtao.(2018).Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013-2014 Summer Season.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(2),1037-1064. |
MLA | Zhu, Kefeng,et al."Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013-2014 Summer Season".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.2(2018):1037-1064. |
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