GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2017JD027756
Impact of Intraseasonal Oscillations on the Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean Sea in GFDL HiRAM
Gao, Kun1; Chen, Jan-Huey2,3; Harris, Lucas M.2; Lin, Shian-Jiann2; Xiang, Baoqiang2,3; Zhao, Ming2
2017-12-27
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2017
卷号122期号:24
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The tropical cyclones (TCs) that form over the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico region pose a major threat to the surrounding coastal communities. Skillful subseasonal prediction of TC activity is important for early preparedness and reducing the TC damage in this region. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a 25km resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) in simulating the modulation of the TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea by the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) based on multiyear retrospective seasonal predictions. We demonstrate that the HiRAM faithfully captures the observed influence of ISO on TC activity over the region of interest, including the formation of tropical storms and (major) hurricanes, as well as the landfalling storms. This is likely because of the realistic representation of the large-scale anomalies associated with boreal summer ISO over Northeast Pacific in HiRAM, especially the enhanced (reduced) moisture throughout the troposphere during the convectively enhanced (suppressed) phase of ISO. The reasonable performance of HiRAM suggests its potential for the subseasonal prediction of regional TC risk.


英文关键词tropical cyclones intraseasonal oscillation Madden-Julian Oscillation subseasonal prediction
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000419950200008
WOS关键词MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; EASTERN PACIFIC ; VARIABILITY ; MODULATION ; MODEL ; MJO ; PREDICTABILITY ; INTENSITY ; FORECASTS ; GENESIS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:9[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32347
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA;
3.Univ Corp Atmospheric Res, Boulder, CO USA
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GB/T 7714
Gao, Kun,Chen, Jan-Huey,Harris, Lucas M.,et al. Impact of Intraseasonal Oscillations on the Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean Sea in GFDL HiRAM[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(24).
APA Gao, Kun,Chen, Jan-Huey,Harris, Lucas M.,Lin, Shian-Jiann,Xiang, Baoqiang,&Zhao, Ming.(2017).Impact of Intraseasonal Oscillations on the Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean Sea in GFDL HiRAM.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(24).
MLA Gao, Kun,et al."Impact of Intraseasonal Oscillations on the Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean Sea in GFDL HiRAM".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.24(2017).
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