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DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027691 |
Simulated Historical (1901-2010) Changes in the Permafrost Extent and Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere | |
Guo, Donglin1,2,3; Wang, Huijun2 | |
2017-11-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:22 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | A growing body of simulation research has considered the dynamics of permafrost, which has an important role in the climate system of a warming world. Previous studies have concentrated on the future degradation of permafrost based on global climate models (GCMs) or data from GCMs. An accurate estimation of historical changes in permafrost is required to understand the relations between changes in permafrost and the Earth's climate and to validate the results from GCMs. Using the Community Land Model 4.5 driven by the Climate Research Unit -National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CRUNCEP) atmospheric data set and observations of changes in soil temperature and active layer thickness and present-day areal extent of permafrost, this study investigated the changes in permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2010. The results showed that the model can reproduce the interannual variations in the observed soil temperature and active layer thickness. The simulated area of present-day permafrost fits well with observations, with a bias of 2.02x10(6)km(2). The area of permafrost decreased by 0.06 (0.62)x10(6)km(2)decade(-1) from 1901 to 2009 (1979 to 2009). A clear decrease in the area of permafrost was found in response to increases in air temperatures during the period from about the 1930s to the 1940s, indicating that permafrost is sensitive to even a temporary increase in temperature. From a regional perspective, high-elevation permafrost decreases at a faster rate than high-latitude permafrost; permafrost in China shows the fastest rate of decrease, followed by Alaska, Russia, and Canada. Discrepancies in the rate of decrease in the extent of permafrost among different regions were mostly linked to the sensitivity of permafrost in the regions to increases in air temperatures rather than to the amplitude of the increase in air temperatures. An increase in the active layer thickness of 0.009 (0.071)mdecade(-1) was shown during the period of 1901-2009 (1979-2009). These results are useful in understanding the response of permafrost to a historical warming climate and for validating the results from GCMs. |
英文关键词 | permafrost change active layer thickness CLM4 5 numerical simulation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000418084500024 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; DEGRADATION ; SCENARIOS ; CHINA |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32605 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Minist Educ, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Joint Lab Climate & Environm Change, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guo, Donglin,Wang, Huijun. Simulated Historical (1901-2010) Changes in the Permafrost Extent and Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(22). |
APA | Guo, Donglin,&Wang, Huijun.(2017).Simulated Historical (1901-2010) Changes in the Permafrost Extent and Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(22). |
MLA | Guo, Donglin,et al."Simulated Historical (1901-2010) Changes in the Permafrost Extent and Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.22(2017). |
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