资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Understanding how climate extremes are sensitive to a changing climate requires characterization of the physical mechanisms behind such events. For this purpose, the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) has become popular in the climate science literature. One potential drawback, though not unique to SOMs, is that the background synoptic conditions represented by SOMs may be too generalized to adequately describe the atypical conditions that can co-occur during the extreme event being considered. In this paper, using the Australian region as a case study, we illustrate how the commonly used SOM training procedure can be readily modified to produce both more accurate patterns and patterns that would otherwise occur too rarely to be represented in the SOM. Even with these improvements, we illustrate that without careful treatment, the synoptic conditions that co-occur during some types of extreme events (i.e., heavy rainfall and midlatitudinal cyclone occurrence days) risk being poorly represented by the SOM patterns. In contrast, we find that during Australian heat wave events the circulation is indeed well represented by the SOM patterns and that this application can provide additional insight to composite analysis. While these results should not necessarily discourage researchers seeking to apply SOMs to study climate extremes, they highlight the importance of first critically evaluating the features represented by the SOM. This study has provided a methodological framework for such an evaluation which is directly applicable to other weather typing procedures, regions, and types of extreme events.