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DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027885 |
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models | |
Paynter, D.1; Frolicher, T. L.2,3; Horowitz, L. W.1; Silvers, L. G.1,4 | |
2018-02-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:4页码:1921-1941 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the long-term change in global mean surface air temperature in response to doubling atmospheric CO2, is usually computed from short atmospheric simulations over a mixed layer ocean, or inferred using a linear regression over a short-time period of adjustment. We report the actual ECS from multimillenial simulations of two Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models (GCMs), ESM2M, and CM3 of 3.3 K and 4.8 K, respectively. Both values are similar to 1 K higher than estimates for the same models reported in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change obtained by regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against temperature. This underestimate is mainly due to changes in the climate feedback parameter (-alpha) within the first century after atmospheric CO2 has stabilized. For both GCMs it is possible to estimate ECS with linear regression to within 0.3 K by increasing CO2 at 1% per year to doubling and using years 51-350 after CO2 is constant. We show that changes in -alpha differ between the two GCMs and are strongly tied to the changes in both vertical velocity at 500 hPa (omega(500)) and estimated inversion strength that the GCMs experience during the progression toward the equilibrium. This suggests that while cloud physics parametrizations are important for determining the strength of -alpha, the substantially different atmospheric state resulting from a changed sea surface temperature pattern may be of equal importance. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427774500001 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE-TEMPERATURE-CHANGE ; ENERGY BUDGET CONSTRAINTS ; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; LOW-CLOUD COVER ; RADIATIVE FEEDBACKS ; EVOLVING PATTERNS ; SPATIAL-PATTERN ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; HEAT UPTAKE ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32706 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 2.Univ Bern, Phys Inst, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland; 3.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland; 4.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paynter, D.,Frolicher, T. L.,Horowitz, L. W.,et al. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(4):1921-1941. |
APA | Paynter, D.,Frolicher, T. L.,Horowitz, L. W.,&Silvers, L. G..(2018).Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(4),1921-1941. |
MLA | Paynter, D.,et al."Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.4(2018):1921-1941. |
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