资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Coastal areas are important sites of environmental and socioeconomic activities and are significantly influenced by climate change. Here we analyzed the current and future responses of spatiotemporal characteristics of land-sea thermal contrast (LSTC) along China's coastal zone to global warming. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim and 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models, we find that the rate of global warming significantly influenced the LSTC in summer. The LSTC first decreased and then increased during the warming and hiatus periods, respectively. In winter, the LSTC decreased in the Bohai Sea coastal zone, Yellow Sea-East China Sea coastal zone, and South China Sea coastal zone at rates of 0.46 (p<0.01), 0.18 (p<0.01), and 0.19 degrees C/decade, respectively. Spatially, the LSTC decreased in summer and winter with the decrease in latitude and increased in summer and winter with the decrease in longitude. These changes were caused by urbanization, land use changes, and topography. The spatial distribution was more strongly controlled by land than by sea. Meanwhile, the land/sea warming ratio was concentrated within the range of 0-1 and 1-2, and land/sea temperature variation trends commonly followed the same direction. Overall, land/sea surface temperature variations had similar amplitudes. Under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the warming rate difference between land and sea in summer is small, but the land warms faster than the sea in winter, resulting in the LSTC decreasing fast in winter. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the linear trends in LSTC in Bohai Sea coastal zone, Yellow Sea-East China Sea coastal zone, and South China Sea coastal zone ranged from 0.05 to 0.08 (p<0.01) and 0.13 to 0.15 degrees C/decade (p<0.01), respectively.