Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2024192118 |
Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point | |
Niklas Boers; Martin Rypdal | |
2021-05-25 | |
发表期刊 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a potentially unstable component of the Earth system and may exhibit a critical transition under ongoing global warming. Mass reductions of the GrIS have substantial impacts on global sea level and the speed of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, due to the additional freshwater caused by increased meltwater runoff into the northern Atlantic. The stability of the GrIS depends crucially on the positive melt-elevation feedback (MEF), by which melt rates increase as the overall ice sheet height decreases under rising temperatures. Melting rates across Greenland have accelerated nonlinearly in recent decades, and models predict a critical temperature threshold beyond which the current ice sheet state is not maintainable. Here, we investigate long-term melt rate and ice sheet height reconstructions from the central-western GrIS in combination with model simulations to quantify the stability of this part of the GrIS. We reveal significant early-warning signals (EWS) indicating that the central-western GrIS is close to a critical transition. By relating the statistical EWS to underlying physical processes, our results suggest that the MEF plays a dominant role in the observed, ongoing destabilization of the central-western GrIS. Our results suggest substantial further GrIS mass loss in the near future and call for urgent, observation-constrained stability assessments of other parts of the GrIS. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
URL | 查看原文 |
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/328755 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Niklas Boers,Martin Rypdal. Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science,2021. |
APA | Niklas Boers,&Martin Rypdal.(2021).Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point.Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. |
MLA | Niklas Boers,et al."Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point".Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (2021). |
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