Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016JD026103 |
Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis | |
Boudreault, Mathieu1,2; Caron, Louis-Philippe2; Camargo, Suzana J.3 | |
2017-04-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Spain; USA |
英文摘要 | We analyze, using Poisson regressions, the main climate influences on North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The analysis is performed using not only various time series of basin-wide storm counts but also various series of regional clusters, taking into account shortcomings of the hurricane database through estimates of missing storms. The analysis confirms that tropical cyclones forming in different regions of the Atlantic are susceptible to different climate influences. We also investigate the presence of trends in these various time series, both at the basin-wide and cluster levels, and show that, even after accounting for possible missing storms, there remains an upward trend in the eastern part of the basin and a downward trend in the western part. Using model selection algorithms, we show that the best model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the recent past is constructed using Atlantic sea surface temperature and upper tropospheric temperature, while for the 1878-2015 period, the chosen covariates are Atlantic sea surface temperature and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. We also note that the presence of these artificial trends can impact the selection of the best covariates. If the underlying series shows an upward trend, then the mean Atlantic sea surface temperature captures both interannual variability and the upward trend, artificial or not. The relative sea surface temperature is chosen instead for stationary counts. Finally, we show that the predictive capability of the statistical models investigated is low for U.S. landfalling hurricanes but can be considerably improved when forecasting combinations of clusters whose hurricanes are most likely to make landfall. |
英文关键词 | tropical cyclones hurricanes climate variability North Atlantic Ocean storm tracks Poisson regression |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000401180800008 |
WOS关键词 | SEASONAL HURRICANE FREQUENCY ; SAHELIAN MONSOON RAINFALL ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; POTENTIAL INTENSITY ; EL-NINO ; AFRICAN RAINFALL ; TYPHOON TRACKS ; VARIABILITY ; OSCILLATION ; GENESIS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32877 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Quebec Montreal, Dept Math, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 2.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Barcelona, Spain; 3.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Boudreault, Mathieu,Caron, Louis-Philippe,Camargo, Suzana J.. Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(8). |
APA | Boudreault, Mathieu,Caron, Louis-Philippe,&Camargo, Suzana J..(2017).Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(8). |
MLA | Boudreault, Mathieu,et al."Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.8(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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