资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated(1-3). Although various physical processes(4-8) have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern(9,10). In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area(9). As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs(2) and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset(11) through employing the data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method(12). Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 degrees C per decade, instead of 0.05 degrees C per decade from IPCC AR5(1), for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.