Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.005 |
Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models | |
Alena Miftakhova, Kenneth L. Judd, Thomas S. Lontzek and Karl Schmedders | |
2019 | |
出版年 | 2019 |
国家 | 瑞士 |
领域 | 资源环境 |
英文摘要 | We propose a general emulation method for constructing low-dimensional approximations of complex dynamic climate models. Our method uses artificially designed uncorrelated CO2 emissions scenarios, which are much better suited for the construction of an emulator than are conventional emissions scenarios. We apply our method to the climate model MAGICC to approximate the impact of emissions on global temperature. Comparing the temperature forecasts of MAGICC and our emulator, we show that the average relative out-of-sample forecast errors in the low-dimensional emulation models are below 2%. Our emulator offers an avenue to merge modern macroeconomic models with complex dynamic climate models. |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | Centre for Energy Policy and Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/329975 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alena Miftakhova, Kenneth L. Judd, Thomas S. Lontzek and Karl Schmedders. Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models,2019. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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