资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

During the last two decades, quasi-periodic long-term slow slip events (SSEs) of magnitude up to M_w7.5 have been observed about every 4 years in the Guerrero Seismic Gap, Mexico. We present numerical simulations of the long-term SSE cycles along the 3D slab geometry of central Mexico. Our model accounts for the hydrated oceanic crust in the framework of rate-and-state friction and captures the major source characteristics of the long-term SSEs occurring between 2001 and 2014, as inferred from geodetic observations. Synthetic surface deformation calculated from simulated fault slip is in good agreement with the cumulative GPS displacements. Our results suggest that the flat segment of the Cocos plate aids the large magnitudes and long recurrence interval of the long-term SSEs. We conclude that 3D slab geometry is an important factor in improving our understanding of the physics of slow slip events.