Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0 |
Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions | |
Partanen, Antti-Ilari1,2; Leduc, Martin3; Matthews, H. Damon1 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Finland |
英文摘要 | Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 degrees C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 degrees C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets. |
英文关键词 | CMIP5 cumulative carbon emissions seasonal climate change pattern scaling TCRE |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404943800002 |
WOS关键词 | TARGETS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33189 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Concordia Univ, Dept Geog Planning & Environm, 1455 De Maisonneuve Blvd West, Montreal, PQ H3G 1M8, Canada; 2.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Climate Res, POB 503, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland; 3.Ouranos, 550 Sherbrooke West,West Tower,19th Floor, Montreal, PQ H3A 1B9, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Partanen, Antti-Ilari,Leduc, Martin,Matthews, H. Damon. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(7). |
APA | Partanen, Antti-Ilari,Leduc, Martin,&Matthews, H. Damon.(2017).Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(7). |
MLA | Partanen, Antti-Ilari,et al."Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.7(2017). |
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