Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512 |
A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss | |
Le Bars, Dewi1; Drijfhout, Sybren1,2,3; de Vries, Hylke1 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; England |
英文摘要 | The potential for break-up of Antarctic ice shelves by hydrofracturing and following ice cliff instability might be important for future ice dynamics. One recent study suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet could lose a lot more mass during the 21st century than previously thought. This increased mass-loss is found to strongly depend on the emission scenario and thereby on global temperature change. We investigate the impact of this new information on high-end global sea level rise projections by developing a probabilistic process-based method. It is shown that uncertainties in the projections increase when including the temperature dependence of Antarctic mass loss and the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. Including these new uncertainties we provide probability density functions for the high-end distribution of total global mean sea level in 2100 conditional on emission scenario. These projections provide a probabilistic context to previous extreme sea level scenarios developed for adaptation purposes. |
英文关键词 | sea level rise antarctica probabilistic projections extreme pathways high-end projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000398370600002 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE ; GLACIER ; SCENARIOS ; RETREAT ; BALANCE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33190 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; 2.Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Utrecht, Netherlands; 3.Univ Southampton, Natl Oceanog Ctr Southampton, Southampton, Hants, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Le Bars, Dewi,Drijfhout, Sybren,de Vries, Hylke. A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(4). |
APA | Le Bars, Dewi,Drijfhout, Sybren,&de Vries, Hylke.(2017).A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(4). |
MLA | Le Bars, Dewi,et al."A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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