Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aacc76 |
Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C | |
Jevrejeva, S.1; Jackson, L. P.2; Grinsted, A.3; Lincke, D.4; Marzeion, B.5 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Denmark; Germany |
英文摘要 | We estimate a median global sea level rise up to 52 cm (25-87 cm, 5th-95th percentile) and up to 63 cm (27-112 cm, 5th-95th percentile) for a temperature rise of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C by 2100 respectively. We also estimate global annual flood costs under these scenarios and find the difference of 11 cm global sea level rise in 2100 could result in additional losses of US$ 1.4 trillion per year (0.25% of global GDP) if no additional adaptation is assumed from the modelled adaptation in the base year. If warming is not kept to 2 degrees C, but follows a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), global annual flood costs without additional adaptation could increase to US$ 14 trillion per year and US$ 27 trillion per year for global sea level rise of 86 cm (median) and 180 cm (95th percentile), reaching 2.8% of global GDP in 2100. Upper middle income countries are projected to experience the largest increase in annual flood costs (up to 8% GDP) with a large proportion attributed to China. High income countries have lower projected flood costs, in part due to their high present-day protection standards. Adaptation could potentially reduce sea level induced flood costs by a factor of 10. Failing to achieve the global mean temperature targets of 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C will lead to greater damage and higher levels of coastal flood risk worldwide. |
英文关键词 | warming of 1.5 degrees C warming of 2 degrees C sea level rise flood cost adaptation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437490200001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ADAPTATION ; GLOBAL TEMPERATURES ; 2.0-DEGREES-C RISE ; PROJECTIONS ; MITIGATION ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; PATHWAYS ; DATABASE ; IMPACT ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33204 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Oceanog Ctr, Liverpool, Merseyside, England; 2.Univ Oxford Nuffield Coll, Programme Econ Modelling, 1 New Rd, Oxford OX1 1NF, England; 3.Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst, Ctr Ice & Climate, Copenhagen, Denmark; 4.Global Climate Forum, Adaptat & Social Learning, Neue Promenade 6, D-10178 Berlin, Germany; 5.Univ Bremen, Inst Geog, Bremen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jevrejeva, S.,Jackson, L. P.,Grinsted, A.,et al. Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(7). |
APA | Jevrejeva, S.,Jackson, L. P.,Grinsted, A.,Lincke, D.,&Marzeion, B..(2018).Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(7). |
MLA | Jevrejeva, S.,et al."Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.7(2018). |
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