Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0160-7 |
Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions | |
van der Bolt, Bregje; van Nes, Egbert H.; Bathiany, Sebastian; Vollebregt, Marlies E.; Scheffer, Marten | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:6页码:478-484 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Climate change research often focuses on trends in the mean and variance. However, analyses of palaeoclimatic and contemporary dynamics reveal that climate memory - as measured for instance by temporal autocorrelation - may also change substantially over time. Here, we show that elevated temporal autocorrelation in climatic variables should be expected to increase the chance of critical transitions in climate-sensitive systems with tipping points. We demonstrate that this prediction is consistent with evidence from forests, coral reefs, poverty traps, violent conflict and ice sheet instability. In each example, the duration of anomalous dry or warm events elevates chances of invoking a critical transition. Understanding the effects of climate variability thus requires research not only on variance, but also on climate memory. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000433904400017 |
WOS关键词 | COLORED ENVIRONMENTAL NOISE ; SAFE OPERATING SPACE ; TROPICAL TREE COVER ; VIOLENT CONFLICT ; EXTINCTION RISK ; POVERTY TRAPS ; RED NOISE ; EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ; CATASTROPHIC SHIFTS ; AFRICAN SAVANNA |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33342 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Aquat Ecol & Water Qual Management Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van der Bolt, Bregje,van Nes, Egbert H.,Bathiany, Sebastian,et al. Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(6):478-484. |
APA | van der Bolt, Bregje,van Nes, Egbert H.,Bathiany, Sebastian,Vollebregt, Marlies E.,&Scheffer, Marten.(2018).Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(6),478-484. |
MLA | van der Bolt, Bregje,et al."Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.6(2018):478-484. |
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