Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2024150118 |
Ecology of the Anthropocene signals hope for consciously managing the planetary ecosystem | |
Clarence Lehman; Shelby Loberg; Michael Wilson; Eville Gorham | |
2021-07-13 | |
发表期刊 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Human populations have grown to such an extent that our species has become a dominant force on the planet, prompting geologists to begin applying the term Anthropocene to recognize the present moment. Many approaches seek to explain the past and future of human population growth, in the form of narratives and models. Some of the most influential models have parameters that cannot be precisely known but are estimated by expert opinion. Here we apply a unified model of ecology to provide a macroscale summary of the net effects of many microscale processes, using a minimal set of parameters that can be known. Our models match estimates of historic and prehistoric global human population numbers and provide predictions that correspond to some of the more complicated current models. In addition to fitting the data well they reveal that, amidst enormous complexity in our human and prehuman past, three key ecological discontinuities have occurred in turn: 1) becoming dominant competitors of large predators rather than their prey, 2) becoming mutualists with food species rather than acting as predators upon them, and 3) changing from a regime of uncontrolled population growth to one of controlled fertility instead. All three processes have been interlinked with cultural evolution and all three ushered in developments of the Anthropocene. Understanding the trajectories that have delivered us to this stage can help guide prudent paths into the future. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/334018 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Clarence Lehman,Shelby Loberg,Michael Wilson,et al. Ecology of the Anthropocene signals hope for consciously managing the planetary ecosystem[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2021. |
APA | Clarence Lehman,Shelby Loberg,Michael Wilson,&Eville Gorham.(2021).Ecology of the Anthropocene signals hope for consciously managing the planetary ecosystem.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. |
MLA | Clarence Lehman,et al."Ecology of the Anthropocene signals hope for consciously managing the planetary ecosystem".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021). |
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