China's ambitious energy transition plans

doi:10.1126/science.abj8773

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abj8773
	China's ambitious energy transition plans
	Xunpeng Shi; Yongping Sun; Yifan Shen
	2021-07-09
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2021
英文摘要	China has pledged to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 ([ 1 ][1], [ 2 ][2]). Although a national road map has not yet been announced, many cities, companies, and institutions in China have been proposing carbon reduction plans that rely on rapidly transitioning from fossil fuels to other types of energy ([ 3 ][3], [ 4 ][4]). Such extreme changes could backfire. China's energy plans are most likely to succeed if they are inclusive, gradual, and tailored to the needs of each region. Radical carbon-neutral targets can lead to unsustainable energy transitions with potentially dangerous unintended consequences. For example, millions of rural residents in China's Hebei province were reportedly left with no heating in the winter of 2017 as a result of a rapid switch from coal to gas in an attempt to reduce pollution ([ 5 ][5]). In mid-December of 2020, factories in China's Zhejiang province were forced to close temporarily to meet unrealistic energy consumption targets ([ 6 ][6]). China should promote equitable energy transitions that do not leave behind disadvantaged groups or those employed by vulnerable sectors of the economy ([ 7 ][7], [ 8 ][8]). Energy transition action plans should include strategies to protect the economic and social welfare of the nearly 4 million people who work in fossil fuel mining and many more who work to support fuel supply chains ([ 9 ][9]). Existing policy debates pay insufficient attention to the social and economic challenges involved in transitioning human capital along with energy ([ 10 ][10]). The energy transition process also needs to be implemented over time rather than in rapid bursts. Energy transition paths should balance human needs and social stability, a lower share of fossil fuels, and energy security. The energy system has strong transition inertia; a radical energy transition path that is not capable of practically and cost-effectively meeting people's basic needs will do more harm than good. Finally, transition plans need to adapt to regional heterogeneity. Because of the tremendous geographic differences in China, not all regions will be able to achieve energy transitions at the same pace. Regions with more economic development and resources may be able to afford earlier neutrality. Regional heterogeneous targets should be established to account for such differences. Adopting market instruments, such as energy production capacity permits ([ 11 ][11]) and an emissions trading system ([ 12 ][12]), can help to minimize the costs of transitions. 1. [↵][13]1. D. Normile , Science 370, 17 (2020) [OpenUrl][14][Abstract/FREE Full Text][15] 2. [↵][16]1. S. Mallapaty , Nature 586, 482 (2020). [OpenUrl][17] 3. [↵][18]1. M. Walsh, 2. K. Jia , “Chinese provinces home to 250 million plan carbon emission peaks,” Caixin (2021). 4. [↵][19]Reuters Staff, “China's top steelmaker Baowu Group vows to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050,” Reuters (2021). 5. [↵][20]“China does U-turn on coal ban to avert heating crisis,” BBC (2017). 6. [↵][21]1. N. Gan , “China turns off the lights in ‘Christmas town’ as officials race to meet energy targets,” CNN (2020). 7. [↵][22]1. F. Green, 2. A. Gambhir , Clim. Pol. 20, 902 (2019). [OpenUrl][23] 8. [↵][24]1. S. Carley, 2. D. M. Konisky , Nat. Energ. 5, 569 (2020). [OpenUrl][25] 9. [↵][26]National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Communiqué on the Fourth National Economic Census (No. 3)” (2019); [www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201911/t20191120_1710328.html][27]. 10. [↵][28]1. G. He et al ., One Earth 3, 187 (2020). [OpenUrl][29] 11. [↵][30]1. X. Shi et al ., J. Clean. Prod. 256, 120472 (2020) [OpenUrl][31] 12. [↵][32]“China's emissions trading scheme,” IEA (2020); [www.iea.org/reports/chinas-emissions-trading-scheme][33]. 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领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/334204
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xunpeng Shi,Yongping Sun,Yifan Shen. China's ambitious energy transition plans[J]. Science,2021.
APA	Xunpeng Shi,Yongping Sun,&Yifan Shen.(2021).China's ambitious energy transition plans.Science.
MLA	Xunpeng Shi,et al."China's ambitious energy transition plans".Science (2021).