Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3297 |
Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates | |
Frame, Dave1,2; Joshi, Manoj3; Hawkins, Ed4; Harrington, Luke J.1,2; de Roiste, Mairead5 | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand; England |
英文摘要 | Time of emergence, which characterizes when significant signals of climate change will emerge from existing variability, is a useful and increasingly common metric(1-3). However, a more useful metric for understanding future climate change in the context of past experience may be the ratio of climate signal to noise (S/N)-a measure of the amplitude of change expressed in terms of units of existing variability(3). Here, we present S/N projections in the context of emergent climates (termed 'unusual', 'unfamiliar' and 'unknown' by reference to an individual's lifetime), highlighting sensitivity to future emissions scenarios and geographical and human groupings. We show how for large sections of the world's population, and for several geopolitical international groupings, mitigation can delay the onset of 'unknown' or 'unfamiliar' climates by decades, and perhaps even beyond 2100. Our results demonstrate that the benefits of mitigation accumulate over several decades, a key metric of which is reducing S/N, or keeping climate as familiar as possible. A relationship is also identified between cumulative emissions and patterns of emergent climate signals. Timely mitigation will therefore provide the greatest benefits to those facing the earliest impacts, many of whom are alive now. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402461300012 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33491 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Victoria Univ Wellington, New Zealand Climate Change Res Inst, Wellington 6012, New Zealand; 2.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Wellington 6021, New Zealand; 3.Univ East Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; 4.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England; 5.Victoria Univ Wellington, Sch Geog Environm & Earth Sci, Wellington 6012, New Zealand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frame, Dave,Joshi, Manoj,Hawkins, Ed,et al. Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(6). |
APA | Frame, Dave,Joshi, Manoj,Hawkins, Ed,Harrington, Luke J.,&de Roiste, Mairead.(2017).Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(6). |
MLA | Frame, Dave,et al."Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.6(2017). |
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