资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Multiple 50-member ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 2 are performed to estimate the coupled climate responses to the 2019-2020 Australian wildfires and COVID-19 pandemic policies. The climate response to the pandemic is found to be weak generally, with global-mean net top-of-atmosphere radiative anomalies of +0.23±0.14 W m^-2 driving a gradual global warming of 0.05±0.04 K by the end of 2022. While regional anomalies are detectible in aerosol burdens and clear-sky radiation, few significant anomalies exist in other fields due to internal variability. In contrast, the simulated response to Australian wildfires is a strong and rapid cooling, peaking globally at −0.95±0.15 W m^-2 in late 2019 with an global cooling of 0.06±0.04 K by mid-2020. Transport of fire aerosols throughout the Southern Hemisphere increases albedo and drives a strong interhemispheric radiative contrast, with simulated responses that are consistent generally with those to a Southern Hemisphere volcanic eruption.