资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Totten Ice Shelf (TIS) in East Antarctica has received increasing attention in recent years due to high basal melt rates, which have been linked to a presence of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) observed at the ice front. We show that mCDW on-shelf intrusions towards the TIS strengthen when the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) weakens. This demonstrates that the ASC has a blocking effect and ASC weakening leads to on-shelf intrusions, as proposed by previous observational studies. The interannual variability of the ASC is controlled primarily by atmospheric and oceanic conditions beyond our regional model domain. We further show that heat intrusions onto the continental shelf off the TIS are not influenced by off-shelf warming but are enhanced with coastal freshening, suggesting positive feedback whereby ice melt and freshening upstream could start a chain reaction, leading to increased melt, and further coastal freshening.