Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2021GL094309 |
Constraining the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic using a simple model | |
David B. Bonan; Tapio Schneider; Ian Eisenman; Robert C.J. Wills | |
2021-08-29 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | State-of-the-art climate models simulate a large spread in the projected decline of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) over the 21st century. Here we diagnose causes of this intermodel spread using a simple model that approximates future SIA based on present SIA and the sensitivity of SIA to Arctic temperatures. This model accounts for 70–95% of the intermodel variance, with the majority of the spread arising from present-day biases. The remaining spread arises from intermodel differences in Arctic warming, with some contribution from differences in the local sea-ice sensitivity. Using observations to constrain the projections moves the probability of an ice-free Arctic forward by 10–35 years when compared to unconstrained projections. Under a high-emissions scenario, an ice-free Arctic will likely ( |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/336571 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David B. Bonan,Tapio Schneider,Ian Eisenman,et al. Constraining the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic using a simple model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | David B. Bonan,Tapio Schneider,Ian Eisenman,&Robert C.J. Wills.(2021).Constraining the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic using a simple model.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | David B. Bonan,et al."Constraining the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic using a simple model".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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