Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD029059 |
Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation | |
Baggett, Cory F.1; Nardi, Kyle M.1; Childs, Samuel J.1; Zito, Samantha N.2; Barnes, Elizabeth A.1; Maloney, Eric D.1 | |
2018-12-13 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:22页码:12661-12675 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | In the United States, severe weather poses a threat to society, producing tornadoes and hail that can result in hundreds of casualties and billions of dollars in damages. Fortunately, skillful predictions of severe weather for short lead times of 0-8 days and longer lead times exceeding 1 month have been realized. However, this leaves a forecast gap at subseasonal to seasonal lead times of 2-5 weeks, when early-action decision making by stakeholders is typically made. Here we develop an empirical prediction model that fills this gap during March-June when severe weather is most prevalent across the United States. We demonstrate skillful weekly forecasts of opportunity with lead times of 2-5 weeks of environmental parameters favorable to severe weather, as well as actual tornado and hail activity. To attain this skill, we use as a predictor the current state of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, known to have physical teleconnections with future weather over the United States. The model has significant skill in regions such as the Plains and the Southeast, providing stakeholders with valuable extended forewarning. Plain Language Summary In the United States, severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes and large hail, responsible for hundreds of deaths and injuries and many billions of dollars in damages on average each year. Because of these devastating impacts, there is a keen interest to accurately forecast when and where severe thunderstorms are likely to occur. While meteorologists and computer models do reasonably well in forecasting severe thunderstorm activity up to a week in advance, their forecasts are less reliable in the 2- to 5-week time frame. In our study, we develop a technique that can accurately forecast severe thunderstorm activity in this time frame by using knowledge of the current state of weather in the tropics. These accurate, extended forecasts offer valuable forewarning to both the general public and stakeholders of when and where potentially deadly severe thunderstorm activity is likely to occur. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452994100011 |
WOS关键词 | SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ; CLIMATOLOGY ; PREDICTION ; FREQUENCY ; ENVIRONMENTS ; SUPERCELL ; ATLANTIC ; WEATHER ; EVENTS ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33690 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 2.SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Baggett, Cory F.,Nardi, Kyle M.,Childs, Samuel J.,et al. Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(22):12661-12675. |
APA | Baggett, Cory F.,Nardi, Kyle M.,Childs, Samuel J.,Zito, Samantha N.,Barnes, Elizabeth A.,&Maloney, Eric D..(2018).Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(22),12661-12675. |
MLA | Baggett, Cory F.,et al."Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.22(2018):12661-12675. |
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