GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018JD029059
Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Baggett, Cory F.1; Nardi, Kyle M.1; Childs, Samuel J.1; Zito, Samantha N.2; Barnes, Elizabeth A.1; Maloney, Eric D.1
2018-12-13
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2018
卷号123期号:22页码:12661-12675
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

In the United States, severe weather poses a threat to society, producing tornadoes and hail that can result in hundreds of casualties and billions of dollars in damages. Fortunately, skillful predictions of severe weather for short lead times of 0-8 days and longer lead times exceeding 1 month have been realized. However, this leaves a forecast gap at subseasonal to seasonal lead times of 2-5 weeks, when early-action decision making by stakeholders is typically made. Here we develop an empirical prediction model that fills this gap during March-June when severe weather is most prevalent across the United States. We demonstrate skillful weekly forecasts of opportunity with lead times of 2-5 weeks of environmental parameters favorable to severe weather, as well as actual tornado and hail activity. To attain this skill, we use as a predictor the current state of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, known to have physical teleconnections with future weather over the United States. The model has significant skill in regions such as the Plains and the Southeast, providing stakeholders with valuable extended forewarning. Plain Language Summary In the United States, severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes and large hail, responsible for hundreds of deaths and injuries and many billions of dollars in damages on average each year. Because of these devastating impacts, there is a keen interest to accurately forecast when and where severe thunderstorms are likely to occur. While meteorologists and computer models do reasonably well in forecasting severe thunderstorm activity up to a week in advance, their forecasts are less reliable in the 2- to 5-week time frame. In our study, we develop a technique that can accurately forecast severe thunderstorm activity in this time frame by using knowledge of the current state of weather in the tropics. These accurate, extended forecasts offer valuable forewarning to both the general public and stakeholders of when and where potentially deadly severe thunderstorm activity is likely to occur.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000452994100011
WOS关键词SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ; CLIMATOLOGY ; PREDICTION ; FREQUENCY ; ENVIRONMENTS ; SUPERCELL ; ATLANTIC ; WEATHER ; EVENTS ; ENSO
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33690
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;
2.SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Baggett, Cory F.,Nardi, Kyle M.,Childs, Samuel J.,et al. Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(22):12661-12675.
APA Baggett, Cory F.,Nardi, Kyle M.,Childs, Samuel J.,Zito, Samantha N.,Barnes, Elizabeth A.,&Maloney, Eric D..(2018).Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(22),12661-12675.
MLA Baggett, Cory F.,et al."Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.22(2018):12661-12675.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Baggett, Cory F.]的文章
[Nardi, Kyle M.]的文章
[Childs, Samuel J.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Baggett, Cory F.]的文章
[Nardi, Kyle M.]的文章
[Childs, Samuel J.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Baggett, Cory F.]的文章
[Nardi, Kyle M.]的文章
[Childs, Samuel J.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。