资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Fluvial bedrock erosion formulas lack validation over space and time. We explore the performance of field-calibrated models at the patch-scale () and from minutes to centuries. At the hour to annual scales (in resolution), we verify predictions using linked discharge, bedload transport and at-a-point erosion, together with spatial erosion from a mountain streambed. Local and spatial erosion linearly scale with bedload mass. The unit stream power model (USP) fails to describe erosion dynamics without a threshold for its onset. Extrapolating over the decadal scale ( of discharge and bedload data), scaled models predict up to of erosion for two exceptional floods. Erosion predictions for a bi-centennial discharge varied over four orders of magnitude (extrapolated from discharge and bedload data at resolution). Bi-centennial erosion predictions summing up to for bedload models versus for USP highlight the likely dominance of large events in setting long-term erosion under sediment-starved conditions.