GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018JD029066
The Role of Internal Variability in Twenty-First-Century Projections of the Seasonal Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Yettella, Vineel1,2; England, Mark R.3
2018-12-16
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2018
卷号123期号:23页码:13149-13167
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The seasonal cycle is fundamental to the Earth's climate system, accounting for the vast majority of temperature variance. Understanding how the seasonal cycle will change in the future, and by when, is a key question with important implications. Here a 40-member initial condition climate model ensemble is used to investigate the influence of internal variability on the detection of changes in the amplitude and timing of the seasonal cycle of surface temperature over Northern Hemisphere land in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Internal variability renders the detection of these changes challenging; even by the mid-twenty-first century, small ensembles will be insufficient to separate the forced signals from internal variability over many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Despite this, projected changes over Europe, North Africa, and Siberia are large and easily detectable, even in a single member. Specifically, amplitude increases over Europe and North Africa while it decreases over Siberia. On the other hand, the timing of the seasonal cycle is delayed over all three regions. It is found that these changes are remarkably robust across model ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 archive. To understand the mechanisms underlying these robust changes, a simple energy balance model is used to partition changes into contributions arising from changes in the physical parameters that control the seasonal cycle. It is found that future changes in the seasonal cycle over the three regions are most strongly controlled by changes in surface longwave and turbulent heat fluxes.


英文关键词seasonal cycle internal variability climate change climate variability initial condition ensembles CMIP5
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000455285500007
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TELECONNECTIONS ; CIRCULATION ; IRRADIANCE ; FRAMEWORK ; AMPLITUDE ; ENSEMBLE ; IMPACTS ; TRENDS ; PHASE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/33921
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
2.Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
3.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA
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GB/T 7714
Yettella, Vineel,England, Mark R.. The Role of Internal Variability in Twenty-First-Century Projections of the Seasonal Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(23):13149-13167.
APA Yettella, Vineel,&England, Mark R..(2018).The Role of Internal Variability in Twenty-First-Century Projections of the Seasonal Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(23),13149-13167.
MLA Yettella, Vineel,et al."The Role of Internal Variability in Twenty-First-Century Projections of the Seasonal Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.23(2018):13149-13167.
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