资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

There is increased interest in understanding urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To accurately estimate city emissions, the influence of extraurban fluxes must first be removed from urban greenhouse gas (GHG) observations. This is especially true for regions, such as the U.S. Northeastern Corridor-Baltimore/Washington, DC (NEC-B/W), downwind of large fluxes. To help site background towers for the NEC-B/W, we use a coupled Bayesian Information Criteria and geostatistical regression approach to help site four background locations that best explain CO2 variability due to extraurban fluxes modeled at 12 urban towers. The synthetic experiment uses an atmospheric transport and dispersion model coupled with two different flux inventories to create modeled observations and evaluate 15 candidate towers located along the urban domain for February and July 2013. The analysis shows that the average ratios of extraurban inflow to total modeled enhancements at urban towers are 21% to 36% in February and 31% to 43% in July. In July, the incoming air dominates the total variability of synthetic enhancements at the urban towers (R-2=0.58). Modeled observations from the selected background towers generally capture the variability in the synthetic CO2 enhancements at urban towers (R-2=0.75, root-mean-square error (RMSE)=3.64ppm; R-2=0.43, RMSE=4.96ppm for February and July). However, errors associated with representing background air can be up to 10ppm for any given observation even with an optimal background tower configuration. More sophisticated methods may be necessary to represent background air to accurately estimate urban GHG emissions.