Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0089-x |
Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts | |
Faurby, Soren1,2,3; Araujo, Miguel B.3,4,5 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:3页码:252-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Sweden; Spain; Portugal; Denmark |
英文摘要 | Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426308500024 |
WOS关键词 | DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; EXTINCTION RISK ; BIODIVERSITY ; DIVERSITY ; CORE ; QUANTIFICATION ; UNCERTAINTIES ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; 21ST-CENTURY ; CONSERVATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34150 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden; 2.Gothenburg Global Biodivers Ctr, Gothenburg, Sweden; 3.CSIC, Museo Nacl Ciencias Nat, Dept Biogeog & Global Change, Madrid, Spain; 4.Univ Evora, InBio Ctr Invest Biodiversidade & Recursos Genet, Evora, Portugal; 5.Univ Copenhagen, Nat Hist Museum Denmark, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, Copenhagen, Denmark |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Faurby, Soren,Araujo, Miguel B.. Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(3):252-+. |
APA | Faurby, Soren,&Araujo, Miguel B..(2018).Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(3),252-+. |
MLA | Faurby, Soren,et al."Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.3(2018):252-+. |
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