Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3278 |
Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks | |
Armour, Kyle C.1,2 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Global energy budget constraints(1-3) suggest an equilibrium climate sensitivity around 2 degrees C, which is lower than estimates from palaeoclimate reconstructions(4), process-based observational analyses(5-7), and global climate model simulations(8,9). A key assumption is that the climate sensitivity inferred today also applies to the distant future. Yet, global climate models robustly show that feedbacks vary over time, with a strong tendency for climate sensitivity to increase as equilibrium is approached(9-18). Here I consider the implications of inconstant climate feedbacks for energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity. I find that the long-term value of climate sensitivity is, on average, 26% above that inferred during transient warming within global climate models, with a larger discrepancy when climate sensitivity is high. Moreover, model values of climate sensitivity inferred during transient warming are found to be consistent with energy budget observations(1-3), indicating that the models are not overly sensitive. Using model-based estimates of how climate feedbacks will change in the future, in conjunction with recent energy budget constraints(1,19), produces a current best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.9 degrees C (1.7-7.1 degrees C, 90% confidence). These findings suggest that climate sensitivity estimated from global energy budget constraints is in agreement with values derived from other methods and simulated by global climate models. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400373500011 |
WOS关键词 | RADIATIVE FEEDBACKS ; EVOLVING PATTERNS ; DEPENDENCE ; MODELS ; IMPACT ; TEMPERATURE ; SPREAD ; FUTURE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34208 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Sch Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Armour, Kyle C.. Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(5). |
APA | Armour, Kyle C..(2017).Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(5). |
MLA | Armour, Kyle C.."Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.5(2017). |
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