Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aae6a9 |
Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming | |
Ben, Xiaolin1; 39;Neill, Brian C.2 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Spain |
英文摘要 | The goal of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 degrees C, and possibly to 1.5 degrees C, emerged in the Paris Agreement, motivated by the belief that achieving these targets 'would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change'. Understanding the climate impacts of relatively low levels of warming, in particular whether there are substantial benefits to reducing emissions to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C rather than 2 degrees C, is important for informing climate policy, but such studies are scarce. Here we evaluate the difference in global biophysical and economic impacts related to agriculture between 1.5 degrees C-2 degrees C warming. Given the small difference in global average temperature, accounting for uncertainties is important, and we include key uncertainties in three main components of the analysis: climate system (regional climate variability), biophysical system (crop response to CO2 fertilization), and economic system (trade responsiveness). We are unable to meaningfully distinguish the regional agricultural impacts occurring with 1.5 degrees C warming from those occurring with 2 degrees C warming when accounting for these uncertainties. Under some assumptions 1.5 degrees C implies benefits relative to 2 degrees C, while under others it implies costs. Results are most sensitive to the uncertainty in the effect of CO2 fertilization on crop yield. |
英文关键词 | avoided impacts climate change crop yield uncertainty 15 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450216000003 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE CARBON EMISSIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; YIELDS ; IPETS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34270 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80303 USA; 2.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Seville, Spain; 3.Univ Denver, Denver, CO 80208 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ben, Xiaolin,39;Neill, Brian C.. Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(11). |
APA | Ben, Xiaolin,&39;Neill, Brian C..(2018).Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(11). |
MLA | Ben, Xiaolin,et al."Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.11(2018). |
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