GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aae6a9
Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming
Ben, Xiaolin1; 39;Neill, Brian C.2
2018-11-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2018
卷号13期号:11
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Spain
英文摘要

The goal of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 degrees C, and possibly to 1.5 degrees C, emerged in the Paris Agreement, motivated by the belief that achieving these targets 'would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change'. Understanding the climate impacts of relatively low levels of warming, in particular whether there are substantial benefits to reducing emissions to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C rather than 2 degrees C, is important for informing climate policy, but such studies are scarce. Here we evaluate the difference in global biophysical and economic impacts related to agriculture between 1.5 degrees C-2 degrees C warming. Given the small difference in global average temperature, accounting for uncertainties is important, and we include key uncertainties in three main components of the analysis: climate system (regional climate variability), biophysical system (crop response to CO2 fertilization), and economic system (trade responsiveness). We are unable to meaningfully distinguish the regional agricultural impacts occurring with 1.5 degrees C warming from those occurring with 2 degrees C warming when accounting for these uncertainties. Under some assumptions 1.5 degrees C implies benefits relative to 2 degrees C, while under others it implies costs. Results are most sensitive to the uncertainty in the effect of CO2 fertilization on crop yield.


英文关键词avoided impacts climate change crop yield uncertainty 15 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000450216000003
WOS关键词FUTURE CARBON EMISSIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; YIELDS ; IPETS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34270
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80303 USA;
2.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Seville, Spain;
3.Univ Denver, Denver, CO 80208 USA
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GB/T 7714
Ben, Xiaolin,39;Neill, Brian C.. Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(11).
APA Ben, Xiaolin,&39;Neill, Brian C..(2018).Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(11).
MLA Ben, Xiaolin,et al."Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.11(2018).
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