Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aacc77 |
Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains | |
Sorland, Silje Lund1; Schar, Christoph1; Luthi, Daniel1; Kjellstrom, Erik2 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; Sweden |
英文摘要 | The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically these employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis was true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution details) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. Our results show that the biases of the RCMs and GCMs are not additive and not independent. The two RCMs are systematically reducing the biases and modifying climate change signals of the driving GCMs, even on scales that are considered well resolved by the driving GCMs. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change. |
英文关键词 | regional climate dynamical downscaling climate projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437490600002 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; EURO-CORDEX ; GENERATION ; SCENARIOS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34275 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Rossby Ctr, Norrkoping, Sweden |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sorland, Silje Lund,Schar, Christoph,Luthi, Daniel,et al. Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(7). |
APA | Sorland, Silje Lund,Schar, Christoph,Luthi, Daniel,&Kjellstrom, Erik.(2018).Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(7). |
MLA | Sorland, Silje Lund,et al."Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.7(2018). |
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