GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa93be
Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought
Adams, Henry D.1; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.2,3; Minor, Rebecca L.2,3; Gardea, Alfonso A.4; Bentley, Lisa Patrick5; Law, Darin J.6; Breshears, David D.6,7; McDowell, Nate G.8; Huxman, Travis E.9,10
2017-11-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2017
卷号12期号:11
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Mexico
英文摘要

Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 degrees C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per degrees C for P. edulis; 5.8% per. C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration-many more short droughts than long droughts-these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.


英文关键词drought tree mortality Pinus edulis Pinus ponderosa temperature tree die-off climate change ecology
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000415856200001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DIE-OFF ; FOREST MORTALITY ; NORTHERN ARIZONA ; ELEVATED CO2 ; VARIABILITY ; PATTERNS ; HEAT ; CONSEQUENCES ; LANDSCAPE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34286
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Plant Biol Ecol & Evolut, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA;
2.Univ Arizona, Sch Geog & Dev, Tucson, AZ USA;
3.Univ Arizona, Earthsci B2, Biosphere 2, Tucson, AZ USA;
4.Ctr Invest Alimentac & Desarrollo AC, Guaymas, Sonora, Mexico;
5.Sonoma State Univ, Dept Biol, Rohnert Pk, CA 94928 USA;
6.Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA;
7.Univ Arizona, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Tucson, AZ USA;
8.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA;
9.Univ Calif Irvine, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Irvine, CA USA;
10.Univ Calif Irvine, Ctr Environm Biol, Irvine, CA USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Adams, Henry D.,Barron-Gafford, Greg A.,Minor, Rebecca L.,et al. Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(11).
APA Adams, Henry D..,Barron-Gafford, Greg A..,Minor, Rebecca L..,Gardea, Alfonso A..,Bentley, Lisa Patrick.,...&Huxman, Travis E..(2017).Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(11).
MLA Adams, Henry D.,et al."Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.11(2017).
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