Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa843c |
Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison | |
Calvin, Kate1; Fisher-Vanden, Karen2 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change. |
英文关键词 | integrated assessment modeling climate change agriculture impacts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413849400003 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34290 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 2.Penn State Univ, State Coll, PA 16801 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Calvin, Kate,Fisher-Vanden, Karen. Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(11). |
APA | Calvin, Kate,&Fisher-Vanden, Karen.(2017).Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(11). |
MLA | Calvin, Kate,et al."Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.11(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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