GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1289/EHP9073
Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries
Julen Egiguren; M.J. Nieuwenhuijsen; David Rojas-Rueda
2021-12-01
发表期刊Environmental Health Perspectives
出版年2021
英文摘要

Abstract

Background:

Biking plays a significant role in urban mobility and has been suggested as a tool to promote public health. A recent study has proposed 2050 global biking scenarios based on large shifts from motorized vehicles to bikes. No previous studies have estimated the health impacts of global cycling scenarios, either future car-bike shift substitutions.

Objectives:

We aimed to quantify changes in premature mortality of 2050 global biking scenarios in urban populations from 17 countries.

Methods:

Through a quantitative Health Impact Assessment, the mortality risks and benefits of replacing car trips by bike (mechanica bike and electric bike) in urban populations from 17 countries were estimated. Multiple bike scenarios were created based on current transport trends or large shifts from car trips to bike trips. We quantified the estimated change in the number of premature deaths (reduced or increased) concerning road traffic fatalities, air pollution, and physical activity. This study focuses on urban populations between 20 and 64 y old.

Results:

We found that, among the urban populations (20–64 y old) of 17 countries, 205,424 annual premature deaths could be prevented if high bike-use scenarios are achieved by 2050 (assuming that 100% of bike trips replace car trips). If only 8% of bike trips replace car trips in a more conservative scenario, 18,589 annual premature deaths could be prevented by 2050 in the same population. In all the countries and scenarios, the mortality benefits related to bike use (rather than car use) outweighed the mortality risks.

Discussion:

We found that global biking policies may provide important mortality benefits in 2050. Current and future bike- vs. car-trip policies should be considered key public health interventions for a healthy urban design. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9073

领域资源环境
URL查看原文
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/342992
专题资源环境科学
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Julen Egiguren,M.J. Nieuwenhuijsen,David Rojas-Rueda. Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives,2021.
APA Julen Egiguren,M.J. Nieuwenhuijsen,&David Rojas-Rueda.(2021).Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries.Environmental Health Perspectives.
MLA Julen Egiguren,et al."Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries".Environmental Health Perspectives (2021).
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Julen Egiguren]的文章
[M.J. Nieuwenhuijsen]的文章
[David Rojas-Rueda]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Julen Egiguren]的文章
[M.J. Nieuwenhuijsen]的文章
[David Rojas-Rueda]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Julen Egiguren]的文章
[M.J. Nieuwenhuijsen]的文章
[David Rojas-Rueda]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。